Commentary
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Volatility Persists as Markets Retreat
The economic fallout from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine continues to ripple across the globe. In apparent retaliation for NATO supplying armaments to Ukraine, Russia announced it would cut off gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria.
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Equity Markets Recover While Bonds Drop Further
The war in Ukraine rages on with unusually blunt language being used to describe the actions and intentions of world leaders, indicating a widening geopolitical rift between East and West, with long lasting implications.
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Weathering the Ups and Downs in Volatile Markets
February will be marked in history as the month Russia invaded its neighbor Ukraine. Historically wars have surprisingly little impact on financial markets but in this case, the past may not be prologue.
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Markets are Off to a Rough Start
The Economy: Strong numbers continue to print as the US economy expands.
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2021 in Review
The Economy: The U.S. economy experienced a strong expansion throughout 2021, with consensus estimates of real GDP growth to end near 5% for the year.
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An Increasing Focus on Risk Management
Omicron: The recent rise of the COVID-19 Omicron variant poses a potential threat to economic growth, with the possibility of slowing labor market participation and intensifing supply-chain disruptions.
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Balancing Risk and Reward
In our previous commentary, we discussed the well known seasonal adage known as “Sell in May and Go Away.” The corollary to that is the “Halloween Effect,” which is the seasonal tendency for stronger equity returns during the months of November through April (illustrated in Figure 1).
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The September Effect
Although the stock market adage, “Sell in May and go away” is often quoted, there is another seasonal pattern that has plagued the U.S. equity markets in recent decades. The “September Effect” refers to the tendency for the month of September to exhibit weak stock market returns.
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Languishing Labor and Fed Tapering
It has been largely expected by market participants that the Fed would soon announce the start of tapering (reduction of asset purchases). However, the weak Nonfarm Payroll print on September 3rd has clouded the outlook for a taper timeline.
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Shifting Tides
As we head into the Fall, uncertainty continues to overshadow the investment landscape.
