Commentary
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Bulls and Bears
The relative calm of January quickly ended in early February when a Chinese surveillance balloon, later confirmed as spycraft, was shot down by U.S. fighter jets off the coast of South Carolina.
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Calm Before The Storm
In January, for the first time in months, there was little news of market importance to note in the geopolitical domain.
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2022 in Review
2022 will likely be remembered as the year the international community began to shift from a relatively stable unified world to a more volatile structure, with countries increasingly mapping their own paths outside of the post-World War II monetary framework.
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Approaching Market Crossroads
China’s economy continued to struggle in November as its population remained in partial lockdown in its now three-year attempt to rid itself of COVID. The populace is growing increasingly frustrated with how the government is administering the program, resulting in demonstrations throughout the country.
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Geopolitics Shaping Market Dynamics
The 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party closed on October 22 with the coronation of President Xi Jinping as the nation’s ruler. From 1982 to 2018, the country’s constitution had stipulated a President could not rule for more than two consecutive terms of five years each, but the term limits were removed effectively rubber stamping Xi as President for life.
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Rising Hopes Amidst Market Downslopes
In a stunning reversal of fortune, the Ukraine forces mounted successful counterattacks against Russian forces in September, reclaiming significant territory.
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Energy as Currency
Tensions between Russia and the West ratcheted up significantly in August as Russia completely shut down the Nord Stream 1 pipeline and gas to the EU, declaring it would resume flows only if the West rescinded its sanctions, something that won’t happen until Russia ends its aggression in the Ukraine.
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Global Tensions Rising
Russia continues to make gradual progress on the ground in Ukraine while simultaneously pressing its strategic advantage as a significant energy supplier to Europe.
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First Half of 2022 in Review
While investors continue to focus on the conflagration in Ukraine, their attention shifted in June to the potential economic fallout from the growth slowdown taking hold globally. This was no more evident than in the price behavior of industrial commodity prices, which declined precipitously in the last half of the month.
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Markets on Edge
The proxy war in Ukraine continues with neither side ready to concede. Reports the Biden administration was preparing to send long-range rocket systems to Ukraine have heightened tensions, although the Administration quickly issued assurances such weapons would not be used to attack targets inside Russia itself
