Commentary
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2024 Investment Strategy Review
The 2024 Strategies Year in Review encapsulates Kensington Asset Management’s unwavering dedication to navigating complex financial landscapes with precision and foresight.
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2024 In Review
The year 2025 is notable for being a perfect square year, meaning it is the product of a squared integer, in this case, 45. It is also the year of the Wood Snake according to the Chinese Zodiac.
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The Age of Global Populism
The period of global populism we are living through promises to be one of wrenching change, not all of it peaceful. The recent assassination of a senior health care executive, while morally repugnant, is but one sign of socio-economic conflict intermixed with a generational transition not unlike what took place in the 1960s.
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Politics Prevail
In February, Goldman Sachs wrote a report calling 2024 the “Year of Elections”, noting that over half the world’s population was expected to head to polls to vote this year.
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Is This Time Different?
This time is different. Sophisticated investors are reflexively skeptical whenever they hear this bromide, particularly so when used to make the case for investing in China.
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Bumpy Roads
In 2016, PBS published a column entitled “How Gold and Art Auctions Can Gauge Stock Market Confidence.” In it, economist and author Vikram Mansharamani asserted one of the world’s best indicators of overconfidence is the performance of a single stock: Sotheby’s. Peaks in the auction house’s stock price, he wrote, have historically coincided with financial and economic exuberance.
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Fragile Markets
Investors over the past few weeks have gotten a glimpse of how fragile the global financial system can be when its levered underpinnings are tested by higher borrowing costs.
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Solidifying Expectations
In the “Year of the Election”, results to date have been less disruptive than originally feared. Marie Pen’s far right party in France failed to win an absolute majority and Macron was able to hold on to the Presidency but in a weaker state, leaving the country to face an uncertain political future.
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The Global Bull
As we pointed out in our February Commentary, three billion people are expected to head to the electoral polls across several economies over the next two years.
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Volatility in Risk Assets
Tensions between the US and China remain elevated and are likely to continue as we move into the election season.
