Insights
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Is 2024 the Year of the Bond?
Given the continued explosion of AI this year and its impact on equity markets, both positive (higher index returns) and negative (deteriorating breadth), it’s easy to forget that entering the year, many believed 2024 would be “The Year of the Bond”.
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Life’s Lessons in Financial Management: Staying in the Game
With summertime upon us, our family recently wrapped up another little league season. I love that time of year, especially coaching my son’s team. He is seven and just moved up from t-ball to the machine pitch league.
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The Vix’s Take on Volatility
While investment returns are typically the primary focus for investors, market volatility (or lack thereof) has recently become a growing focal point. Historically, periods of high and low volatility have been indicative of underlying market dynamics and broader economic conditions.
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Is Stagflation on the Horizon?
The recently released 1st quarter GDP print, which showed both a substantial slowdown from previous quarters and stubbornly high underlying inflation data, has recently sent alarm bells ringing concerning the Federal Reserve’s least favorite word… stagflation.
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Investigating Recent Market Pullback
This week has been a lesson in how quickly markets can shift. After over 100 days without a 2% correction day for the S&P 500 (SPX) – a streak that has only occurred seven times since 1953 – over the last week, the SPX suffered a drawdown of 3.6% from its closing high, marking the first 3%+ pullback in 5 months.
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While Stocks Soar, Bonds Stall
Last week concluded a historic first quarter for the S&P 500 (SPX), which closed at a fresh all-time high and marked the second consecutive quarter of +10% gains, a feat seen only seven other times since 1950.
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Rising Challenges in Commercial Real Estate
The US commercial real estate (CRE) market is facing turbulent times. Since mid-2022, property values in the US CRE market have declined by -10% to -20%, varying across sectors and indices.
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Inside the AI Bubble
While we are a week removed from Nvidia’s (NVDA) 4th quarter 2023 earnings announcement, the Silicon Valley-based AI chipmaker remains the talk of equity markets, given its recent blowout announcement. Q4 revenues soared above already high expectations to $22 billion — a 270% increase from the previous year.
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CPI Data Challenges Inflation Optimism
On Tuesday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics provided an inflation update, with the January Consumer Price Index (CPI) showing an increase of 0.3% for the month and 3.1% year-over-year (y/y), down from 3.4% in December.
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The Magnificent Seven
The S&P 500 reached a new all-time high last week after a feverish run that began in late October. The index has recorded gains in 12 of the last 13 weeks (see chart below), an occurrence that has not happened since 1985.
